Could Arizona be a swing state in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Arizona has emerged as a key battleground state for the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. Joe Biden ended the Republican winning streak in 2020, becoming the first Democrat to win the state since Bill Clinton in 1996. Arizona had been reliably Republican from 2000 to 2016, with George W. Bush, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump all securing victories during that period.

Arizona has not been won by the Democratic Party in back-to-back presidential elections since Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s four consecutive wins from 1932 to 1948, followed by Harry S. Truman’s victory in 1948.

Over the course of this time frame, the Republican Party secured victory in 11 straight presidential elections in the state, starting with Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952 and culminating with Trump in 2016. Nevertheless, shifts in demographics and a growing number of independent voters resulted in a decrease in the party’s backing within the state.

With the Presidential Preference Elections for both parties just around the corner on March 19,, a website renowned for its coverage of Arizona sportsbooks, recently reviewed the current odds of each presidential party winning the 11 electoral votes in Arizona for the upcoming 2024 election.

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In 2024, will Arizona be a red or blue state? has analyzed the average results of three recent polls to determine the likelihood of how Arizona will vote in the 2024 Presidential Election. The polls were conducted by “Franklin & Marshall,” “Bloomberg / Morning Consult,” and “Susquehanna Polling.”

Party Odds Pct. Chance
Democrat (Blue) +12045.5%
Republican (Red) +105 48.7%

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Presidential Election Voting in Arizona has been recent

Election YearDemocratic Candidate Republican Candidate
2020 Joe Biden (49.4%) Donald Trump (49.1%)
2016 Hillary Clinton (45.11%) Donald Trump (48.7)
2012Barack Obama (44.6%) Mitt Romney (53.7%)
2008 Barack Obama (45.1%) John McCain (53.6%)
2004 John Kerry (44.4%)George W. Bush (54.9%)

Will Joe Biden lead the Democrats to another victory in Arizona?

Even though the 2024 election is more than eight months away, it is becoming more likely that we will witness a repeat of Biden and Trump facing off as the main contenders, with both parties starting to support their chosen candidates.

In the years 2000 to 2020, Arizona voters have accurately predicted the winning presidential candidate 66.7% of the time. Joe Biden is the only Democratic candidate to win the state’s electoral college votes in this century.

According to, the Democratic party is slightly behind the GOP in the 2024 election, with the Democrats having odds of +120 and the Republicans at +105 to win in the Grand Canyon State.

In the 2020 election, Biden won Arizona with a slim margin, receiving 49.4% of the popular vote compared to Trump’s 49.1%. This indicates that the state may see another tight race when the final votes are counted in November.

In the upcoming November election, Democrats are counting on Arizona to increase their electoral count, as the state has transitioned from being a sure win for Republicans to becoming a key swing state in 2024.


Peterson Christopher

Peterson Christopher has been reporting on sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years. He has a wealth of experience from his time at, the Tucson Weekly, and the Green Valley News. Currently, he serves as the lead writer at

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