What can Cardinals fans hope to find in the 2024 NFL Draft?

The Arizona Cardinals are on pace for another disappointing year, sitting at the bottom of the NFC West standings and likely headed for their second straight season with double-digit losses.

The Cardinals, with a current record of 3-10 and fresh off their bye week, are sparking excitement among Arizona sports betting fans as they look towards the NFL Draft.

From 2000 to 2021, the Cardinals experienced ten seasons with five or fewer wins. However, despite these challenges, several key players from the team went on to play for playoff teams five times, including a Super Bowl appearance in 2009.

Yengols.com conducted an analysis of Arizona’s performance in the NFL Draft after underwhelming seasons by evaluating the contributions of each draft pick to the franchise in the 21st Century. Utilizing Pro-Football-Reference.com, we determined the Weighted Average Value (wAV) of each first-round selection to distinguish successful picks from unsuccessful ones.

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Best Selections in Most Disappointing Years Since 2000

• During the 2018-19 season, QB Kyler Murray finished with a record of 3 wins and 13 losses, giving him a winning percentage of .188. He also attained a wAV of 51 out of 61 games played.
• During the 2000-01 season, T Leonard Davis had a win-loss record of 3-13, resulting in a winning percentage of .188. Throughout his career, he achieved 66 wins above average (wAV) in 171 games played.
• During the 2022-23 season, OL Paris Johnson finished with a record of 4 wins and 13 losses, along with a batting average of .235. In 13 games played, he recorded a Weighted Approximate Value (wAV) of 0.
• During the 2003-04 season, WR Larry Fitzgerald posted a 4-12 record with a winning percentage of .250. He accumulated 93 wAV over the course of 263 games.
• During the 2002-03 season, WR Bryant Johnson played 139 games with a wAV of 26, and DE Calvin Pace played 187 games with a wAV of 61.
• During the 2005-06 season, quarterback Matt Leinart finished with a 5-11 record and a winning percentage of .313. He accumulated a Weighted Approximate Value (wAV) of 12 over the course of 33 games.
• During the 2006-07 season, T Levi Brown had a win-loss record of 5-11, resulting in a winning percentage of .313. He accumulated 34 wins above average (wAV) throughout 81 games.
• During the 2010-11 season, DB Patrick Peterson achieved a record of 5-11 with a winning percentage of .313. He accumulated 101 weighted approximate value (wAV) in 197 games.
• During the 2012-13 season, G Jonathan Cooper participated in 46 games and achieved a weighted approximate value (wAV) of 16. His win-loss record was 5-11, giving him a winning percentage of .313.
• LB Isaiah Simmons finished the 2019-20 season with a record of 5 wins, 10 losses, and 1 tie, resulting in a winning percentage of .333. He accumulated a Weighted Approximate Value (wAV) of 17 over 62 games.
• Mean: 47.7 weighted average value (477 total cumulative weighted average value)

Even with a challenging season, Arizona is not yet mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, giving them a slim chance to make it to the postseason. As a result, the Cardinals’ Super Bowl odds are still at +100000.

The draft offers Cardinals fans a glimmer of hope.

The future performance of 2023 first-round pick Paris Johnson is still up in the air, as he has yet to accumulate any wins above replacement (wAV) in 13 games this year. On the other hand, we can confidently assess the impact of Arizona’s first-round draft picks from 2000 to 2022 as either successful or unsuccessful.

During that period, cornerback Patrick Peterson stood out as the most valuable player on the field with a wAV of 101, trailed by Larry Fitzgerald (93 wAV), Leonard Davis (66 wAV), Kyler Murray (51 wAV), and Levi Brown (34 wAV). Conversely, the biggest letdowns for the Cardinals were Matt Leinart (12 wAV), Jonathan Cooper (16 wAV), and Isaiah Simmons (17 wAV).

Tankathon.com predicts that the Arizona Cardinals will have the third overall pick in the 2024 draft, trailing behind Chicago (via Carolina Panthers) and New England. In their upcoming game this week, the Cardinals will face the San Francisco 49ers, who have a record of 10-3. Despite playing at home, ESPN’s oddsmakers have listed Arizona as a 13.5-point underdog against San Francisco.